Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 28 2021 | 10475 | 45305 | 335 | 97 | 351 | 494 |
| January 29 2021 | 10498 | 45438 | 335 | 97 | 365 | 476 |
| January 30 2021 | 10530 | 45592 | 336 | 98 | 353 | 471 |
| January 31 2021 | 10554 | 45664 | 338 | 98 | 321 | 448 |
| February 01 2021 | 10583 | 45713 | 338 | 98 | 312 | 459 |
| February 02 2021 | 10597 | 45798 | 337 | 98 | 286 | 464 |
| February 03 2021 | 10637 | 45852 | 338 | 98 | 287 | 460 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.6 | 7% | 20 | 0.17% | 39 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 4.0 | 13.9% | 40 | 0.29% | 63 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 6.7 | 23% | 66 | 0.32% | 100 | 0.48% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 3.1 | 14.3% | 41 | 0.3% | 70 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 3.7 | 13.6% | 39 | 0.37% | 61 | 0.58% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 2.6 | 11.8% | 34 | 0.27% | 51 | 0.41% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.4 | 9.8% | 28 | 0.24% | 41 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 4 | 2.0 | 6.6% | 19 | 0.18% | 35 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 40 | 26.1 | 100% | 287 | 0.27% | 460 | 0.44% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 28 2021 | 6769 | 26731 | 202 | 77 | 235 | 340 |
| January 29 2021 | 6787 | 26781 | 203 | 79 | 244 | 333 |
| January 30 2021 | 6801 | 26841 | 204 | 80 | 241 | 317 |
| January 31 2021 | 6822 | 26892 | 204 | 80 | 223 | 309 |
| February 01 2021 | 6833 | 26922 | 205 | 80 | 191 | 299 |
| February 02 2021 | 6833 | 26966 | 205 | 80 | 176 | 290 |
| February 03 2021 | 6863 | 27042 | 207 | 83 | 182 | 303 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.4 | 7.1% | 13 | 0.17% | 22 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.6 | 8.8% | 16 | 0.19% | 40 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 2.7 | 14.8% | 27 | 0.38% | 39 | 0.55% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 3.1 | 16.5% | 30 | 0.36% | 51 | 0.61% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 2.0 | 15.4% | 28 | 0.36% | 50 | 0.64% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 3.0 | 16.5% | 30 | 0.31% | 42 | 0.43% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 1.9 | 9.3% | 17 | 0.2% | 27 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.3 | 11.5% | 21 | 0.3% | 32 | 0.45% |
| All ages | 30 | 18.0 | 100% | 182 | 0.28% | 303 | 0.47% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 28 2021 | 5087 | 17879 | 216 | 69 | 176 | 282 |
| January 29 2021 | 5108 | 17900 | 217 | 69 | 195 | 268 |
| January 30 2021 | 5122 | 17929 | 217 | 71 | 193 | 261 |
| January 31 2021 | 5134 | 17970 | 217 | 71 | 184 | 245 |
| February 01 2021 | 5134 | 17979 | 217 | 71 | 150 | 223 |
| February 02 2021 | 5135 | 18003 | 217 | 71 | 129 | 222 |
| February 03 2021 | 5147 | 18055 | 217 | 71 | 123 | 218 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.6 | 4.1% | 5 | 0.09% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.7 | 13% | 16 | 0.29% | 26 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 2.0 | 11.4% | 14 | 0.31% | 30 | 0.66% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 1.4 | 11.4% | 14 | 0.26% | 28 | 0.52% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.6 | 16.3% | 20 | 0.4% | 33 | 0.66% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.3 | 18.7% | 23 | 0.34% | 35 | 0.52% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.7 | 14.6% | 18 | 0.28% | 32 | 0.51% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.3 | 10.6% | 13 | 0.21% | 26 | 0.41% |
| All ages | 12 | 12.6 | 100% | 123 | 0.27% | 218 | 0.48% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 28 2021 | 11503 | 48711 | 326 | 71 | 425 | 576 |
| January 29 2021 | 11647 | 48927 | 330 | 71 | 545 | 687 |
| January 30 2021 | 11687 | 49068 | 331 | 72 | 524 | 682 |
| January 31 2021 | 11728 | 49148 | 331 | 73 | 535 | 703 |
| February 01 2021 | 11753 | 49242 | 333 | 73 | 536 | 675 |
| February 02 2021 | 11774 | 49361 | 339 | 74 | 495 | 672 |
| February 03 2021 | 11815 | 49522 | 340 | 74 | 516 | 652 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 3.9 | 6.8% | 35 | 0.3% | 46 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 8.7 | 20.2% | 104 | 0.63% | 126 | 0.76% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 13.1 | 25.2% | 130 | 0.61% | 158 | 0.74% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 8.1 | 13.2% | 68 | 0.5% | 90 | 0.66% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 4.7 | 10.5% | 54 | 0.4% | 75 | 0.55% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 5.3 | 11.2% | 58 | 0.41% | 77 | 0.54% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4.3 | 7.2% | 37 | 0.26% | 47 | 0.33% |
| 70+ | 0 | 2.9 | 5.8% | 30 | 0.23% | 33 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 41 | 51.0 | 100% | 516 | 0.44% | 652 | 0.55% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 28 2021 | 37600 | 310610 | 1138 | 244 | 1078 | 1613 |
| January 29 2021 | 37707 | 311398 | 1139 | 245 | 1144 | 1581 |
| January 30 2021 | 37848 | 311926 | 1146 | 251 | 1259 | 1551 |
| January 31 2021 | 37949 | 312511 | 1151 | 251 | 1203 | 1516 |
| February 01 2021 | 38020 | 312912 | 1152 | 251 | 1076 | 1498 |
| February 02 2021 | 38085 | 312902 | 1157 | 251 | 1007 | 1522 |
| February 03 2021 | 38164 | 313016 | 1162 | 251 | 971 | 1575 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 5.6 | 5.1% | 50 | 0.08% | 73 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 28 | 19.6 | 17.3% | 168 | 0.24% | 242 | 0.34% |
| 20-29 | 24 | 34.1 | 28.8% | 280 | 0.27% | 425 | 0.41% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 12.9 | 13.5% | 131 | 0.17% | 240 | 0.31% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 12.1 | 11.2% | 109 | 0.17% | 192 | 0.29% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 13.7 | 13% | 126 | 0.19% | 210 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 7.7 | 7.3% | 71 | 0.13% | 119 | 0.22% |
| 70+ | 5 | 4.0 | 3.7% | 36 | 0.07% | 74 | 0.15% |
| All ages | 79 | 109.7 | 100% | 971 | 0.18% | 1575 | 0.29% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 28 2021 | 538348 | 2493144 | 24063 | 5811 | 15471 | 22366 |
| January 29 2021 | 539915 | 2498517 | 24154 | 5860 | 15513 | 21664 |
| January 30 2021 | 541408 | 2503387 | 24243 | 5893 | 15484 | 21220 |
| January 31 2021 | 542415 | 2507600 | 24298 | 5896 | 14314 | 20621 |
| February 01 2021 | 543165 | 2510670 | 24337 | 5897 | 12994 | 20288 |
| February 02 2021 | 544260 | 2512757 | 24460 | 5937 | 12408 | 19858 |
| February 03 2021 | 545437 | 2517446 | 24554 | 5951 | 12466 | 19513 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 69 | 79.3 | 6.3% | 784 | 0.12% | 1202 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 176 | 173.0 | 13.2% | 1644 | 0.22% | 2558 | 0.34% |
| 20-29 | 172 | 201.3 | 15.5% | 1934 | 0.26% | 3126 | 0.41% |
| 30-39 | 161 | 183.0 | 14.4% | 1799 | 0.24% | 2881 | 0.38% |
| 40-49 | 178 | 181.4 | 14.6% | 1816 | 0.26% | 2742 | 0.39% |
| 50-59 | 159 | 180.3 | 14.6% | 1824 | 0.22% | 2843 | 0.35% |
| 60-69 | 150 | 142.7 | 11.4% | 1417 | 0.19% | 2207 | 0.29% |
| 70+ | 112 | 129.1 | 10% | 1248 | 0.19% | 1954 | 0.31% |
| All ages | 1177 | 1270.1 | 100% | 12466 | 0.21% | 19513 | 0.34% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 46.3 | 47.8 | 26.1 | 36 | 20.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46.9 | 18 | 24.7 | 25.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48.2 | 12.6 | 20.7 | 27.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55.1 | 76.1 | 74.2 | 51 | 39.1 | 27.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.8 | 34.1 | 40.9 | 109.7 | 111.6 | 19.4% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33.5 | 33.8 | 41.3 | 1270.1 | 1666.3 | 22.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.62 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-24 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5089"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges